During the previous season, these three year old’s progressed at very different rates as two year old’s. The main reason to not back two year old’s at odds on due to this variability is still apparent early the following season. Betting on horse racing can be really tough unless you are receiving top class inside stable information, you are likely to be vulnerable to this lack of current form or knowledge to any individuals well being.
The bookmakers will price up the horses based on information that is not only out of date but unrealistic AND THEY KNOW THIS! How can the prices reflect the cold hard truth seven or eight months later? If two first season athletes were both off the track for over six months, it is fair to assume unless a world beating champion was involved not too many people would even consider betting on the outcome as one may well of trained on better than the other.
So why is it, that based on hype and the bookmakers mind games are we any more prepared to back one horse over another, especially in this medium? Be careful to make your own calculations and make your own mind up based on more than just bookmakers prices.
Some trainers are known to be good at readying this type of horse to do itself justice first time out however certain trainers have almost certainly left a little if not a lot to work on! These are great races to witness paddock side on the day of the race. By being at the racetrack you will be able to gauge not only one horses development from another’s but their relative fitness as well.
Mark Johnston’s runners can be fairly easy to gauge just watching the market. If the early prices in the morning were chalked up and his first time out three year old showed at around five to one or less and attracted good market support in the last thirty minutes before the off, you know your horse will be running well. On the other hand, if the price is five to one or bigger and started drifting before the race, you almost know with certainty that it would not be winning on this day.
The lesson, learn to watch for these patterns and make notes every month, every year if need be. Some trainers and stables really do know whether they have a great chance on the day in these types of races. Be careful to go through the form, you will often find if you study enough that stable A in a race actually beat one of the runners from stable B in this race with another horse! Form line, they know how their two selections fair at home and that in this case they have got the other horse beat.
Learn to know which stables judge this well and watch out for relative market support. Do not follow the market support two quickly though, quite often the support in the last five minutes is more relevant than any as the real liability is shown to all!
Another note to take for this type of race is the relevance of any jockey booking. Sometimes you will see Ryan Moore or Jamie Spencer riding for a stable that they rarely do in a really competitive looking Maiden when they could be riding for a stable that might be more familiar! Take note and check the statistics, these statistics are readily available and will help point the way.
If you really study the relation between the prices on the day at each bookmakers, and the stables the horses represent. You will begin to learn that some bookmakers are more ‘connected’ with certain stables than others. The best example of this is the quality of information Ladbrokes seem to have over the other bookmakers regarding the runners from the Ballydoyle stable (A.P O’Brian) and also other Irish runners! If Ladbrokes go shortest alone on any A.P selection you are assured of a good run. Learn to read these correlations between bookmakers prices and certain stables.
Betting on horse racing can bring great joy and does to many, not just financial reward but more than this. The challenge of working out all of the form lines and permutations is a science in its own right. Do not expect to learn these skills overnight, but spend as much time as you can reading about horse racing and watch as many races as you can. This way you too can learn over time how to make betting on horse racing pay in more ways than one! You may even become world champion at unravelling the three year old Maiden puzzle!
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